Mohamed El-Erian, PIMCO's co-CEO and probably one of the best credit gurus in the United States, believes the global economy will struggle because of the ongoing deterioration in public finances. Though the next credit shock might be a few years away following the dark days of 2007-2009, governments will face the Piper again amid a flood of issuance to finance out-of-control deficits and rising long-term interest rates.

I shudder whenever someone proclaims that we are entering a New Era, or this time it’s different. There are certain things in life that I have come to depend on, such as a bearish Stephen Roach, the chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia and former global strategist. His writing used to be so depressing that you had to read King Lear to cheer up. He was such a perennial bear that I used to joke with my Morgan Stanley sales contact that Morgan Stanley needed to throw a huge party when he turned bullish.

A year ago this week the stock market hit its nefarious 666 level on the S&P 500. Since that historic day, we have enjoyed a 68% appreciation in equities from their depressionary low. Not only has the bounce caused a chorus of perma-bulls to claim the worst of the recession is behind us, but also to declare that the bull market is here to stay.

Daniel Little shares his notes:

Rawls on Marx; December 1973, by Daniel Little: John Rawls taught a course on the history of political philosophy throughout much of his career at Harvard University. The course contained his description and analysis of the most important figures in modern political philosophy, including Mill, Locke, Rousseau, Kant, and Marx.