I have written about the Peak Oil thesis before, Gregor Macdonald over at his site has a new post entitled The Myth of Energy Breakthroughs that gives a great perspective on that viewpoint [emphasis mine]:

It’s common among those who sell the idea of energy breakthrough to invoke electronic or digital adoption narratives. Breakthroughs in medicine, in electronic networks, and in other intellectual achievement distribute more easily upon existing systems. This is why I continue to believe that many (not all) in Cleantech Venture dont’ really understand the scale of our energy problem. Or, having understood the scale of our energy problem, many apply adoption pathways learned from other systems–that simply don’t translate to energy, and the built environment.

If the world is to transition from oil to another energy source, the amount of time and scale of the process is enormous. Gregor Macdonald went on to a chart that shows how long it to nuclear to reach levels of electrical generation by hydro.

Simply put, nine women can't have a baby in a single month.

Cam Hui 
Humble Student of The Markets

Mr. Hui has been involved in the equity markets since 1980, both on the buy side and the sell side. He is currently semi-retired and living in Vancouver, Canada with his family. He maintains his interests in the markets and advises hedge funds and other clients as a consultant. He is a CFA Charterholder. He has presented numerous papers to quantitative discussion groups. Sample topics include: How Global are Resource Sectors; Hidden Biases in Quantitative Models; and Hedge Fund Replication.

Copyright © 2008 Cam Hui

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